Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.009628 0.010873 0.012220 0.013785 0.015553 0.017491 0.019777
2025-11-30 0.007776 0.009521 0.011565 0.014139 0.017297 0.021050 0.025855
2025-12-07 0.006403 0.008283 0.010611 0.013708 0.017727 0.022778 0.029621
2025-12-14 0.005514 0.007462 0.009984 0.013493 0.018264 0.024537 0.033445
2025-12-21 0.004773 0.006714 0.009327 0.013109 0.018457 0.025776 0.036597
2025-12-28 0.004447 0.006479 0.009311 0.013556 0.019780 0.028610 0.042152
2026-01-04 0.004121 0.006197 0.009185 0.013810 0.020820 0.031094 0.047391
2026-01-11 0.003861 0.005980 0.009121 0.014130 0.021957 0.033784 0.053140
2026-01-18 0.003532 0.005622 0.008806 0.014026 0.022418 0.035465 0.057447
2026-01-25 0.003266 0.005335 0.008568 0.014010 0.022998 0.037349 0.062205
2026-02-01 0.002987 0.005000 0.008222 0.013782 0.023198 0.038621 0.066039
2026-02-08 0.002809 0.004812 0.008095 0.013895 0.023962 0.040856 0.071656
2026-02-15 0.002595 0.004550 0.007829 0.013760 0.024308 0.042447 0.076355
2026-02-22 0.002480 0.004450 0.007830 0.014087 0.025486 0.045563 0.084038
2026-03-01 0.002255 0.004133 0.007427 0.013659 0.025270 0.046188 0.087219
2026-03-08 0.002086 0.003904 0.007157 0.013445 0.025419 0.047468 0.091709
2026-03-15 0.001909 0.003644 0.006813 0.013062 0.025213 0.048064 0.094921
2026-03-22 0.001860 0.003622 0.006903 0.013507 0.026621 0.051806 0.104587
2026-03-29 0.001789 0.003551 0.006896 0.013761 0.027671 0.054932 0.113280
2026-04-05 0.001731 0.003500 0.006921 0.014079 0.028872 0.058442 0.123047
2026-04-12 0.001629 0.003352 0.006746 0.013976 0.029203 0.060223 0.129346
2026-04-19 0.001544 0.003233 0.006618 0.013960 0.029711 0.062399 0.136661
2026-04-26 0.001444 0.003075 0.006398 0.013732 0.029748 0.063591 0.141925